With just four matches remaining in Group C of the 2024 African Nations Championship (CHAN), the battle for the two quarter-final slots is on a knife’s edge.

Uganda, South Africa, and Algeria hold the advantage, but Guinea and Niger still have mathematical chances to sneak through if results go their way.

The group, co-hosted in Kampala and Nairobi, has so far delivered shocks, dominant wins, and razor-thin margins.

Uganda currently lead with six points from three matches and a healthy +5 goal difference, thanks to victories over Guinea (3-0) and Niger (2-0).

Algeria and South Africa follow closely with four points each, while Guinea are clinging to slim hopes with three points from their opening three games. Niger remain rooted to the bottom without a point or a goal.

Uganda
With six points and one game left against South Africa on August 18, the  Cranes’ fate is largely in their own hands.

A draw will almost certainly secure passage, while a win will confirm top spot. But if they lose, and Algeria or South Africa win big in their remaining matches, Uganda could find themselves edged out on goal difference.

Algeria
Unbeaten so far with a win over Uganda and a draw against South Africa, the Fennec Foxes play Guinea today (August 15) before meeting Niger on August 18 in Nairobi.

Two wins will guarantee qualification. Even a win and a draw could be enough, depending on South Africa’s results.

South Africa
The Bafana Bafana sit third on goal difference but have the advantage of playing struggling Niger today before a decisive clash with Uganda. A win over Niger will put them in a strong position, but anything less will hand the initiative to Algeria and Uganda. Coach Molefi Ntseki has stressed recovery and focus, warning against complacency despite Niger’s poor start.

Guinea
It’s now or never for the National Elephants. With just three points, they must beat Algeria today to stay alive. A draw or defeat will send them home early. Even with a win, they’ll need South Africa to falter and hope results on the final day fall in their favour.

Niger
The Menas’ situation is dire no goals, no points, and two games left against South Africa and Algeria. Only back-to-back wins will keep them in the conversation. Anything else, and their CHAN 2024 journey ends in the group stage.

Given current standings, Uganda have high percent chance of progressing, needing just a draw in their final match.

Algeria and South Africa each have about a 60 percent chance both still control their fate but face tough opponents. Guinea’s odds are slimmer, around 15 percent, while Niger’s are barely relying on perfect results and other teams’ misfortunes.

The drama intensifies because any win by Algeria or South Africa before the final day could mathematically eliminate Uganda if the Cranes lose their last match heavily.

Conversely, if Guinea shock Algeria today and South Africa stumble against Niger, the final matchday could see all five teams still in contention a rare scenario in CHAN history.

For now, Group C remains wide open. The next 72 hours will decide who sails into the knockout rounds and whose tournament dreams sink.