The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), led by Raila Odinga, is confused about its role in government as the 2027 general elections draw closer.

Raila, who is now working with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), has left Kenyans wondering what ODM’s next move will be.

The confusion began on March 7, 2025, when Ruto and Raila signed a Memorandum of Understanding to work together and solve Kenya’s political and economic problems. Raila said the deal was not about a handshake but about bringing unity to the country.

“There is no coalition formed between UDA and ODM, but it is an agreement which is based on the MoU which was signed between us, and it was in open daylight,” said Raila Odinga in Karachuonyo constituency, Homabay county, during a funeral service.

Since then, Raila has noticeably toned down his criticism of the government and has been accompanying Ruto on various development tours.

Matters became even more confusing when several ODM allies were appointed to positions within the government. Although Raila insisted the appointments were about deploying experts to help solve national problems and not about ODM joining the government, many interpreted this as a step toward a possible political merger.

On the housing levy agenda by the Kenya Kwanza administration, Raila’s position appeared to shift further when he threw his support behind Ruto’s contentious housing levy.

Raila was once a critic of the housing levy policy.

“You are taxing Kenyans to build affordable houses. Ask those who want a house and subject them to housing levy taxation. But one who has a house, why is he or she subjected to taxation?” Said Raila this in Kiharu in a burial service of former Muranga Governor Mwangi Wa Iria’s mother-in-law.

In a turn of events, Raila hit the headlines after donating five acres of land in Kisumu for Ruto’s affordable housing project. A clear indication that he was in support of Ruto’s agenda.

“The affordable housing project is a government project that will help Kenyans. That is why I have donated five acres of land to the government to allow the construction of affordable houses to Kenyans,” said Raila Odinga during a development tour in Kisumu alongside President William Ruto.

On Tuesday, March 11, 2025, in Kiambu, Raila criticised the healthcare system, telling the residents that the Social Health Authority was not working.

“SHA is not working, it must be fixed,” said Raila Odinga.

In a surprising development, Siaya Governor Orengo, long known for his criticism of Ruto’s regime, led a delegation of leaders from Siaya County to the Statehouse in Nairobi on 5th June. The purpose of the visit was to lobby for development projects for the county, marking a significant turn for Orengo, a long-time critic of Ruto’s administration.

Even more surprising was Orengo’s praise for the very program Raila had dismissed.

“SHA is a good story, I must say. It has also improved our source of revenue quite significantly,” Orengo stated.

The evolving relationship between Raila and Ruto has received mixed reactions. Some Kenyans believe the two might form a coalition government. Notably, Raila has urged his base, who have always been anti-government, to support Ruto’s leadership.

Still, during an Eid Baraza event in Mombasa in April, Raila announced that ODM would have a presidential candidate in 2027, further compounding the confusion plaguing his partnership with Ruto’s UDA. Raila maintained that ODM is not in government.

“I did not enter into this arrangement with the state to betray Kenyans. Kenya is bigger and more important than any individual. Kenyans must unite and work together. But when the time comes for elections, ODM will also contest,” stated Odinga.

However, Raila embraced Ruto’s style of leadership, hinting at supporting Ruto’s re-election.

“Ruto’s presidency has started working. I want it to continue until it changes the entire country,” said Raila during a development tour in Nyanza alongside William Ruto.

Raila’s language and tone reflected his significant shift with Ruto’s administration as he went to unveiled other government projects.

A section of ODM MPs has also been seen in support of the Ruto-Raila alliance. Homa Bay MP Peter Kaluma has expressed confidence that a political alliance between Raila Odinga and President William Ruto would secure a victory in the 2027 general elections.

“The Coalition led by Raila Odinga and William Ruto set for a landslide win in 2027,” Kaluma stated in a X post.

ODM has always been known as a strong opposition party with deep support from ordinary citizens. Its shift from resistance to cooperation has surprised many of its supporters.

As the 2027 elections approach, ODM faces two big choices, and each comes with risks: joining Ruto to form a coalition could give ODM more influence and help secure Raila’s legacy. But it might also damage ODM’s reputation as a party that stands for justice and the people, making room for new opposition movements.

ODM fielding its candidate would show that ODM is still independent and the main voice of the opposition. But it would be a tough fight against a sitting president with government resources, and ODM might lose badly.

However, ODM could only be playing safe on the issue of coalition out of fear of public backlash and a strategy to keep parliamentary positions and remain relevant in Kenyan politics.

Political commentator Jacob Ochiro now sees the Raila and Ruto coalition as inevitable after their camaraderie during the Nyanza development tour. While a partnership looms, doubt persists about its ability to secure Ruto a 2027 win.

“I think it’s a matter of when and not if ODM will form a coalition with Ruto. The Nyanza development tour scenes in Nyanza and body language around Ruto and Raila suggest so,” says Jacob Ochiro.

“The only problem is whether Nyanza votes will be enough to help Ruto achieve the 50%+1 threshold. The Nyanza vote has never propelled Baba to power, and now that they won’t be having a presidential candidate, will they turn out to vote?” he added.

Frankline Mukwanja, the executive director of the Centre for Multiparty Democracy, argued that a Ruto-Raila coalition is not helpful, arguing that the opposition chief has a major interest in the Nyanza politics.

“Politics is a game of numbers. So, Nyanza may not be helpful to William Ruto. If the same voting patterns are what they are transferring, then William Ruto is likely to take a beating,” said Mukwanja in a TV interview.

“What we should ask ourselves is if those numbers were with Raila Odinga on the ballot, what if Raila is not on the ballot? Would the apathy also increase? Does that help their candidate?” He added.

ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna has warned against working with Ruto. Other top ODM leaders like Kisumu Governor Anyang Nyong’o and Siaya Governor James Orengo agree that ODM should field its candidate to remain strong and relevant.

Speculation is now rife that ODM   Sifuna may soon follow suit, despite his public criticism of the Kenya Kwanza administration.

Khazali Yahya, a communications strategist and political analyst, argues that both Raila and Ruto’s alliance, just like Rigathi’s faction, lack the capacity to bring real change.

“Raila-Ruto alliance is already formed. In the same breath, I don’t think Rigathi’s team has the wherewithal to dethrone Ruto. Neither of the political factions is competent to deliver for the people of Kenya,” he argues.

In the end, the Kenyan people may decide ODM’s future. Many are unhappy with the rising cost of living and Ruto’s unpopular decisions. If things don’t improve, ODM’s current friendship with the government could be seen as a betrayal.