If President William Ruto has been struggling with sleep in recent days, he must have had a good night’s rest last night.

Bagging former Prime Minister Raila Odinga and getting him to formally commit to a co-operation agreement, undoubtedly, handed the Dr Ruto a political lifeline.

Early last year, the Head of State sowed a seed of hope that he may have Raila in his corner when he supported the former premier’s futile bid to be the African Union Commission chairperson.

On Friday, at the iconic Kenyatta International Convention Centre, a venue that bears bitter memories for both men of an allegedly stolen election victory in 2007, the President earned a bumper harvest – Raila, a man who boasts a loyal political base always at his beck and call.

As Raila thanked the President for his support, it was clear that the former premier had been moved by Ruto’s solidarity. But while Ruto gained an ally, he essentially lost some element of control of part of his government, something he vowed against doing two years ago, at the height of opposition-led anti-government protests.

“They want nothing but a handshake. I want to tell you bright and early – forget about a handshake. Don’t tell us that you don’t want a handshake. We can see you and we know you,” the President said in January 2023, when the Raila-led opposition laid ground for protests that would follow weeks later.

As he campaigned to succeed former President Uhuru Kenyatta, Ruto consistently criticized his predecessor’s handshake with Raila, which he faulted as a “mongrel of a government” that killed oversight.

“There is a mongrel of an organization and nobody knows what the hell it is. People don’t know whether we have the opposition in government or the government in government,” Ruto said in a March 2022 interview, then as deputy president.

Ruto and Raila have had this kind of partnership since last July, when the former premier nominated five of his allies to join the “broad-based” Executive, which they formalized yesterday with the promise of more to come.

“We make it clear that the memorandum we have signed today does not define the formation of a political coalition between ODM and UDA. However, its successful implementation could inform the basis of steps towards the establishment of a broadly constituted and progressive formation for a stable country in future,” Raila said at the KICC event.

The Commander-in-Chief concurred, saying “…the time has come for us to seize this historic opportunity, unite more strongly than ever before, and deliver meaningful change for the Kenyan people.”

“We undertake this commitment with the understanding that while our political parties differ in strategy, we share a common goal – to build a united, secure, and prosperous Kenya under a government that is capable, committed and willing to ensure abundance and opportunity for all, without exception,” added Ruto.

The pair said they would “deploy their political infrastructure,” implying their deal could see a shuffle in the Executive to have Raila gain more cabinet and principal secretary slots to dish out to his allies.

Looking at his options, the President’s hands are essentially tied. He has seen better days in terms of his popularity. Two-and-a-half years into his presidency, he has experienced two waves of demonstrations over tax hikes and high living costs, and has been in a spot over a breakdown of government services.

Currently, there is widespread outcry over the inefficiencies in the Social Health Insurance Fund, a scheme that was to cure the ills of the defunct National Health Insurance Fund.

To tame dissent, Ruto has turned to political solutions, engaging Raila to keep sections of the country quiet. Pushed to the wall by a youth-led revolt last year, Ruto reached out to Raila, calming down the opposition veteran’s bases. It came at a price as Ruto had to cede five cabinet slots to the former premier.

With Raila secured, the President, who had been grounded by the Generation Z-led protests, finally found his voice, venturing out to campaign. Buoyed by warm receptions, Ruto has been more confident in areas the former prime minister controls.

Even though Ruto said his support for Raila’s AUC bid had been unconditional, the negative reaction by some residents of Kisumu towards Raila’s loss in the AUC race must have jolted the Head of State, desperate for allies. It is no secret that the president hopes to secure the support of Raila’s traditional strongholds.

The situation is almost dire for Ruto, given the perception that he is fast losing the Mount Kenya voting bloc courtesy of his fallout with Gachagua, who blames his former boss for driving his impeachment last October.

Evidence of Ruto’s growing unpopularity in Mt Kenya is in the hostile reception he and other government officials have faced in tours of the region. In January, Public Service Cabinet Secretary Justin Muturi was heckled as he tried to read a speech by Ruto.

“The political atmosphere in the Mt Kenya region is not favourable. Mt Kenya has moved out of the Kenya Kwanza coalition,” noted Dr Timothy Onduru, who teaches History at Moi University.

Keen to plug the 3.5 million (half of Ruto’s votes in 2022) void in the event  Mt Kenya would leave, Ruto has intensified campaigns in the former Nyanza, Western and North Eastern provinces. Having Raila as an ally grants him some assurances in parts of Nyanza, but he may have to do some heavy lifting in Western, where anti-Ruto politicians are gaining ground.

Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, Mumias East Member of Parliament Peter Salasya and former Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala are seemingly gaining popularity for their sustained criticism of Ruto’s administration.

Observers have argued that the president looks entirely dependent on Raila, with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua chiding his former boss that Raila was his “life support machine.”

“The President’s current life support is Raila. If switched off, it will be his (Ruto’s) end,” Gachagua said in Machakos recently.

University professor of leadership and management Gitile Naituli agreed, saying Ruto had “no choice but to yield to Raila.”

“He is at his weakest. Gen Zs exposed him very badly, showing he needs Raila to buttress him. Politically speaking, Raila is Ruto’s oxygen… whatever Raila wants, he will get,” said Prof Naituli.

Dr Onduru argued that both Ruto and Raila need each other “for their political survival.”

“Alliances are formed based on interests. If Raila did not need Ruto, he would not have entered the broad-based government,” he said.

Uriri Member of Parliament Mark Nyamita argued that the deal was not aimed at securing anyone’s political survival but for Kenya’s greater good.

“The decision by the two great leaders of our time to partner despite their past bitter rivalry reminds us that the country remains greater than all of us. The 60+ years of history of this nation must be re-written to ensure we have an inclusive society and end the sense of entitlement from some leaders,” said Nyamita.