Is Kenya safer? 12 Years after Westgate, Kenya still grapples with old and new terror threats

Today marks 12 years since the deadly Westgate attack in Nairobi.

On September 21, 2013, gunmen stormed the Westgate Mall, spraying bullets at shoppers, an incident that shocked the country.

For four days, the nation was hooked on live broadcasts of the siege that left at least 67 people dead and hundreds wounded.

It was the deadliest terrorist attack since the 1998 U.S. embassy bombing in Nairobi, shattering a period of relative calm and thrusting the country back into the crosshairs of international terror.

Twelve years later, is the country safer today?

According to security experts, Westgate was a wake-up call, one that exposed glaring lapses in coordination and response.

Different agencies stumbled over each other, civilians were caught in the crossfire, and critical intelligence was ignored.

“It highlighted the need for a whole-of-society and whole-of-government approach. It exposed gaps in coordination and response approaches to active incidents. It also showed the need for public awareness,” said Kibiego Kigen, the director of the National Counter Terrorism Centre (NCTC).

The immediate result was the Security Laws Amendment Act of 2014, which laid the foundation for Kenya’s now widely cited multi-agency approach.

Intelligence gathering, once jealously guarded by competing agencies, was restructured to flow more fluidly from the grassroots through county security committees up to the national level.

“Information sharing has become more fluid with the county security and intelligence committees. Real-time coordination has improved. The net effect is visible in the reduction of high-impact attacks,” said Kigen.

The contrast between Westgate and the 2019 DusitD2 attack in Nairobi, Riverside Drive, is often cited as evidence of progress.

At Dusit, heavily gunmen stormed a business complex, killing at least 21 people.

But unlike Westgate, security forces swiftly secured the scene. Within hours, the attackers were neutralized, and hundreds of civilians were evacuated.

“That was a big difference. At Westgate, we were caught flat-footed. It took days, it was messy, and we lost many. But at Dusit, within two hours, the threat was contained. That shows improvement in capacity building, coordination, and preparation,” said Dr. Alumasi Makanga, a security expert.

Yet the Garissa University massacre in 2015, where 148 people, mostly students, were killed, remains a grim reminder that systemic weaknesses persist. Slow response times, poor crisis coordination, and intelligence failures meant the attackers held hostages for hours.

One of the starkest shifts since Westgate has been the recognition that private businesses, which include malls, hotels, and office complexes, are not just economic hubs but frontline targets.

“Today, cameras and scanners at entrances are standard requirements for malls. Private security companies must be registered and accredited. This is progress compared to 2013 when it was up to operators to decide what level of security fit their budget,” said Augustine Limakwang, a peace and security analyst.

According to Limakwang, many businesses still see security as an expense, not an investment. 

“If you carry out a survey across malls, you will find minimal budgets for security compared to other functions. Some facilities stop at putting CCTV cameras, but they don’t invest in monitoring units or trained personnel to interpret threats,” said Limakwang.

“You look at some malls and you just say, we are surviving by the grace of God. Very few have serious physical systems in place,” said Makanga.

According to Makanga, the uneven standards mean Nairobi’s upscale malls may be harder to breach, but smaller establishments, or hotels in towns remain dangerously exposed.

Makanga said that after Westgate, the government revived community policing initiatives, including the Nyumba Kumi strategy, which encouraged neighbors to know and monitor each other, but implementation has faltered. 

“In countries like Rwanda, it is not easy for a stranger to settle unnoticed. Here, people don’t know their neighbors. The Nyumba Kumi idea was good, but it was never actualized,” said Makanga.

While malls and hotels may look safer, Kenya’s porous borders remain a major vulnerability.

 “Kenya has an expansive border, not devoid of challenges. But we have introduced biometrics, cross-border intelligence cooperation, and strengthened patrols. Yet the problem persists,” said Kigen.

According to Kigen, the battleground has shifted to the online space. Recruitment of youth via social media, encrypted apps, and gaming platforms is now a growing concern.

“The cyber and tech-enabled spaces are areas of contention. Radicalization online is a serious threat,” he said.

Kigen said that trust between the public and security agencies remains a key gap. 

“Without public goodwill, resource-intensive security efforts will always fall short,” said Kigen.

According to Limakwang, Kenya is better prepared today than in 2013, but safer does not mean safe.

“We are at a greater percentage safer, but we cannot let our guard down. Terrorism is dynamic. Our measures must keep evolving,” said Limakwang.

Makanga, while acknowledging the police have thwarted many silent plots, still, there are glaring weaknesses.

“Aviation security is poor. At airports, checks are minimal compared to other countries. That is a ticking time bomb,” said Dr. Makanga.

Limakwang stated that each attack in the past forced Kenya to adapt, to learn, to plug the gaps terrorists had exposed, yet each also revealed that while strategies may evolve, the threat itself mutates.

“The question is not whether Kenya has improved. It is whether the improvements are keeping pace with the evolving threats. That is the real test,” said Limakwang.