President William Ruto yesterday assembled the heads of the East African Community (EAC) to discuss the escalating conflict in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

Under immense foreign pressure, DRC President Felix Tshisekedi and President Paul Kagame of Rwanda agreed to the virtual emergency meeting, held a day before the Southern Africa Development Community meets over the violent clashes in Goma, which have led to the deaths of at least 13 South African soldiers.

South African troops are among SADC forces helping to fight the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group that has taken control of Goma, the epicentre of the Eastern DRC conflict.

The meeting comes in the  wake of attacks on the Kenyan embassy, among others, in Kinsasha by protesters. Rwanda and the DRC have traded blame, with Tshisekedi often accusing Kagame of backing the M23 rebel group. A United Nations report also implicated Kigali in financing the group but Kagame denies the allegations.

Ruto chairs the EAC, and his actions will be closely followed, especially since Kenya presented former Prime Minister Raila Odinga as its candidate to succeed Moussa Faki Mahamat as the African Union Commission chairperson.

Kenya, which hosts EAC mediation efforts through the Nairobi Peace Process, has been keen to keep its EAC partners happy. There was initial enthusiasm when Kenya led an EAC peacekeeping force that brought temporary calm to the strife-torn area in 2023.

Tshisekedi and former President Uhuru Kenyatta had enjoyed friendly ties and the DRC leadership was optimistic that they would find a solution to the M23, a group comprising former indigenous fighters recruited into the Congolese army in 2009 but who revolted on allegations of mistreatment. They draw their name from the March 23 agreement of 2009 that saw them incorporated into DRC’s military.

The EAC Regional Force  (EACRF) unceremoniously withdrew from the DRC at the end of their one-year-long mission, with SADC forces replacing them. Tshisekedi had expressed reservations with the EACRF, amid concerns that they did not dismantle the M23 as promised.

The EAC troops maintained that they had delivered on their mandate, which they argued only allowed them to respond to attacks and not initiate them.

“Albeit fragile, the ceasefire lasted from March 7 to October 6, 2023, when it was breached following (the) resumption of hostilities between M23 and FARDC,” EACRF Force Commander Major General Aphaxard Kiugu said in his exit speech, blaming “negative propaganda against the regional force” for undermining its mission.

At the time, Nairobi and Kinshasa were on bad terms most recently due to a press briefing by opposition figure Corneille Nangaa, in which he announced an alliance with M23 rebels. Kenya, which has a bilateral military agreement with the DRC, found itself issuing justifications, with Tshisekedi recalling his envoy in Nairobi.

The general feeling within the DRC’s top brass was that Kenya had been siding with Rwanda in the conflict, with the attack on the Kenyan embassy showing that such feelings linger. Ahead of the attack, Ruto had posted that he had spoken to France’s President Emmanuel Macron over the DRC conflict.

“Tshisekedi and the DRC feel Kenya does not side with them,” observed political scientist Amukowa Anangwe, who previously served as Kenya’s Foreign Affairs minister.

Such views may be detrimental to Nairobi, which seeks to head the AUC. Raila, believed to be a friend of Tshikesedi’s, is banking on the region to vote as a bloc as he faces Djibouti’s Foreign Affairs Minister and Mahamoud Youssouf and former Madagascar Foreign Minister Richard James in elections slated for next month.

University lecturer of History and International Relations Macharia Munene argued whether or not Raila will secure Rwanda’s or the DRC’s vote, or any other country’s for that matter, will depend on “what they think of Ruto, Raila and Kenya.”

“Many heads have already made up their minds. It is just that we do not know who they will vote for,” said Prof Munene, who argued that how the President handles the DRC conflict could have a bearing on Raila’s AUC bid.

“Anything Kenya is involved in will affect Raila in one way or the other even if Raila is not directly involved. However, it is unlikely that the parties involved in the conflict (Rwanda and DRC) will be on the same page in the elections. Regional nations are also divided on the DRC issue – just how much is difficult to say,” he added.

Kagame and Tshisekedi skipped Raila’s unveiling as Kenya’s AUC candidate at a Nairobi meeting last November, but Kigali sent its Foreign Affairs minister, James Kabarebe.

Prof Anangwe agreed that the citizen’s perceptions about Kenya may decide whether or not Raila gets his friend’s vote, arguing that their “national interest” would hold the most sway over the rapport he may share with the DRC president. However, he believes that the overall impact on Raila’s bid would be negligible. 

“In the overall context of Africa, the conflict may not have far-reaching impacts as Africa is diverse with divergent interests at play. I believe Raila is a frontrunner because he has gone the extra mile by lobbying Heads of State. The Djiboutian is focusing on his counterparts across the continent. At the end of the day, foreign ministers take instructions from their presidents,” said Prof Anangwe.

It is not the first time Raila’s ambitions depend somewhat on Ruto’s actions. Some observers have cited Ruto’s past diplomatic blunders that may affect the former premier’s bid. Former Trade Minister Mukhisa Kituyi recently highlighted Kenya’s position on the Israeli-Palestine conflict as one such blunder.

“At a time when Kenya is presenting a candidate, who would otherwise be a very credible candidate, to be the chair of the African Union Commission, the President of Kenya becomes the first and only African leader who starts expressing solidarity with Israel in its genocidal invasion of Gaza… to a lot of people, he shows he does not know what he is talking about,” said Kituyi. “When you are fielding Raila for the African Union, do you know you have 19 Muslim-majority countries in the African Union?” Kituyi posed during a recent interview.