The UDA-ODM pact, along with the emerging alliance between former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, is shaping the political landscape in Nakuru County as the 2027 elections approach.

Local politicians are beginning to take sides, aligning themselves with these two emerging factions as they plan their strategies for various elective positions.

Of particular interest is the gubernatorial seat, which has attracted significant figures, including former government officials, current lawmakers, and ex-politicians, all looking to challenge Governor Susan Kihika in the upcoming election.

Among those who have shown interest or declared their intentions to contest the governorship are;  Nakuru Senator Tabitha Karanja, former NHIF Chief Executive Officer Geoffrey Mwangi, former Nakuru County Assembly Speaker Joel  Kairu, and James Mungai, the former Nakuru senator.

Former Nakuru governor Lee Kinyanjui, who is serving as the current Trade Cabinet Secretary, is said to be considering seeking a second term.

Kinyanjui had before his appointment given an indication that he intended to have a stab at the county’s chief executive officer’s job come the next general election.

The soft-spoken former governor had also held some consultative meetings with his key persons in the county to plot on his came back.

Nevertheless, the leader has since assuming office kept off social and political forums in the county and also refrained from making social medial comments on public issues.

However, Kinyanjui’s close allies have intimated that the leader still harbored political ambitions in Nakuru County but was currently focusing on his CS duties waiting for the right moment to resume his campaigns to reclaim the seat.

For Kihika, this is a challenging time, as she faces a series of political difficulties.

This situation may suggest that her bid for a second term in office could encounter strong opposition at the ballot box in 2027.

Kihika’s time as the county’s first female governor is facing serious challenges due to her abrasive leadership style, the performance of her administration, and her strong ties to the national government, which has seen a significant decline in approval ratings recently.

Kihika, who has been away on maternity leave for the past five months, is facing an uncertain political future as scores of leaders are launching campaigns to oust the incumbent.

She has continued being in the national limelight as residents continued questioning her prolonged absence from office.

This week, a group of activists and good governance crusaders presented a petition to the County Assembly over the governor’s absence from office and demanded accountability in the running and conduct of the county government affairs.

The County Assembly has 14 days, beginning March 20, to process the petition that was signed by more than 2,000 residents.

However, Kihika’s administration has dismissed claims that she has failed to perform, giving a list of projects that she has initiated since she took over two years ago.

Joseph Rutto, one of her political advisers, who served as a former deputy governor, said Kihika’s administration has continued to prioritize health infrastructure, ensuring efficient and dignified services for all.

Rutto gave an example of the recently completed and equipped Subukia Level 4 Hospital, the establishment of the Bondeni Textile Hub, bold investment in vocational training colleges that are changing lives for youth, and several water projects that ensure the provision of clean drinking water to residents.

“The governor has performed more than any other governor has done since 2013 when devolution was implemented. People should understand that when the time of politics will come, the governor will be out there defending her development record,” he said.

County Secretary Dr Samuel  Mwaura has maintained that the county government was discharging its mandate in accordance with the law under the able leadership of Deputy Governor David Kones.

“The Deputy Governor is in charge and in consultation with the governor.  Governor Kihika will be back in no time,” he said when asked about Kihika’s absence.

Some of the leaders eyeing the gubernatorial seat have been traversing various electoral wards across the county where they have been meeting groups of residents and selling their agenda.

Other leaders have made it a habit of attending social gatherings including churches and burial functions where they get an opportunity “to greet the people”

Senator Karanja, who is among who have publicly declared their intentions, fell out with the governor soon after she assumed office.

“At the moment am doing my oversight role and ensuring that Nakuru gets its rightful share of the national resources as required by the constitution. The governor must work for the people, and not play to the gallery,” she said.

But why have leaders launched early campaigns against Kihika?

Since assuming office, Kihika has been the subject of criticism by a cross section of leaders over her abrasive handling of issues in the county and failure to spearhead development projects in the devolved unit.

The Auditor General and the Controller of Budget reports have also been critical of her administration over illegal spending of county finances, operating illegal bank accounts, and expenditures outside the IFMIS system.

Members of the County Assembly have also joined in her attacks, accusing her of failing to provide leadership in the country and failure to implement projects as outlined in the budget passed by the legislative body.

The governor was thrust into the national limelight after the county executive hired goons who invaded the Nakuru War Memorial Hospital, a private hospital, alleging that the lease had expired.

The hospital which has been under the ownership of a private facility over the past 100 years had had its lease renewed by the Lands Ministry in what the governor alleged was fraudulent dealings.

The Senate summoned the governor over the invasion of the hospital and the matter in which patients who were admitted to the hospital were ejected from wards by the hired goons.

The summons followed a petition filed in the Senate against the governor by Karanja, who has over the past two years emerged as one of the most vicious critic of the devolved unit boss.

The senator has voiced her concern over the management of county finances and what she also terms as illegal recruitment of staff under Kihika’s watch.

Karanja has also faulted the governor for illegally terminating contracts for health workers and other employees engaged by the previous regime.

Kihika had upon assuming office also fallen out with a section of MPs from the Kalenjin community who supported her bid for allegedly failing to appoint members of the community in her cabinet.

The Kalenjin community leaders said the appointment to the county government were skewed as the slots allocated to members from the community were not commensurate with the votes they delivered.

Kihika, who ran on the UDA political party ticket received massive support from the Kalejin community, the dominant ethnic group that largely resides in Kuresoi North, Kuresoi South, and Rongai constituencies.

Though the governor later managed to mend fences with the legislators there have been complaints amongst ordinary members of the Kalenjin community who accused her of betraying their trust.

On his part, Mwangi, the former NHIF boss, in his consultative meetings with residents has pledged to provide an alternative leadership in the management of the county government.

“I will be on the race for the governorship. My qualifications in finance and accountancy will come in handy. I will inject professionalism and transparency into the management of the county,” he said when asked about his early campaigns.

Mwangi, who has been credited with transforming NHIF and expanding its revenue base was hounded out of office after he was charged with graft-related charges relating to the organisation’s procurement system.

The charges were later terminated by the court following an application by the director of public prosecution.

Mwangi seems to align himself with the former DP’s political wing and has since led a delegation of Nakuru residents to Wamonyoro, the rural home of Gachagua.

Kairu, on his part argues that he has the kind of experience required to take the county to a higher level of development.

“My background as a former speaker of the country assembly and as a former member of the county’s executive committee in charge of the roads docket, have enabled him to play a major role in laying the foundation of the county government.” He said.

“I have worked both in the county executive and in the legislative arm of the county government. I have been part of the teams that developed policies that laid the foundation for the operationalization of the county government,” Kairu said.

The former county assembly Speaker has stuck with former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party, and he appears to oscillate towards the former DP’s faction of politics.

For Mungai, the first Nakuru senator, he says he is still weighing options on which political formation he would join ahead of the next election.

He says his return to politics was informed by the great potential for growth that Nakuru has, which he says he is capable of ensuring that it provides services to the residents.

Nakuru had been engulfed by a strong UDA wave having been one of the areas that were affected by politically instigated violence in 2007 following disputed presidential elections.

The county which has been the epicenter of political violence since the introduction of multi-party politics solidly backed the peace pact between former President Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, the current President that restored calm in the area.

This prompted the residents to overwhelmingly support Ruto’s presidential bid having worked with him to restore peace in the region.

As the country heads towards the 2027 general elections political leaders in the area are reluctant to openly declare their party of choice following the impeachment of Gachagua.

The power dynamics in the county are likely to change with the majority of Kikuyus who form the bulk of voters in the region having withdrawn their support for UDA while their counterparts in the Kalenjin community who form the second largest voting bloc in the county still supporting the party.

Over the past three successive general elections, the Kikuyu and Kalenjin communities have entered into pacts that have seen them share power at the county level.

The pact has seen Kikuyus take the position of governor with the Kalenjins fielding the running mate.