A day after the daring, but long-expected, removal of Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna as the Secretary General of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party, both supporters and insiders within the political power circle struggled to explain the real reason behind the ouster.

However, some political analysts point to the direction of President William Ruto, who is keen on finalising a pre-election pact between ODM and his ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party while also rearranging the opposition through complex maneuvers.

According to Odhiambo Otieno, a researcher and communication strategist, Sifuna has been a stumbling block due to a sustained campaign against Ruto’s re-election bid despite the plan receiving the endorsement of party leader Oburu Odinga and a section of the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC).

Reports indicate that the deal may be signed by May this year.

Still, Odhiambo said, the chaos in ODM could be part of a well-choreographed script to raise stakes for the Orange party at the negotiation table, a tactic former party leader Raila Odinga was banking on.

“Raila wanted to enter negotiations with Ruto, backed by a chaotic party to heighten his stakes. It showed restlessness within his team so that everyone is considered,” noted Odhiambo.

“I, however, sympathise with Oburu’s team because they are negotiating with someone who is determining the terms, and expelling Sifuna effectively reduces their negotiating power,” he added.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-NI2xDcyySU

A party statement communicating Sifuna’s exit, released after a NEC meeting held in Mombasa yesterday, also revealed plans for a National Delegates Convention (NDC) on March 27.

The gathering of party supporters will, among other things, ratify changes made to the party leadership structure, shoring up anticipation over the choice for Sifuna’s replacement. 

Given the ODM-UDA working relationship, pundits expect state involvement in planning and bankrolling the event, where many warn that political betrayals may also play out.

“The NDC will be a state event. It will likely happen at Kasarani and feature a lot of police and facilitation from the government. And then Babu Owino will show up,” said Odhiambo.

On his part, Lawyer Duncan Ojwang’ accused Sifuna of ‘weaponising’ the ten-point agenda that forms the basis of their engagement in the broad-based government and leveraging it in the ensuing political contest.

He urged the Senator to remain on his course to retain the influence built through the pro-people stance.

ODM has picked Busia Woman Representative Catherine Omanyo as interim Secretary General.