A major political tectonic shift awaits Nyanza and Western Kenya following the sudden death of Raila Odinga, the colossus who firmly held the anchor of the region’s political landscape.

At the heart of the region’s uncertain political future stands ODM, the formidable political empire that Raila transformed into a powerhouse, effortlessly shaping the region’s politics and determining political fortunes.

Here, hundreds of past and current, MCAs, MPs, senators, and governors built their careers on Raila’s political playbook. His word was like law, followed by his mass support base.

But just like his father, the late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga who failed to name an obvious successor or inheritor of his political throne, the ODM party has found itself in the same pond Jaramogi’s Ford Kenya party was in 1994.

Raila had strengthened the Odinga dynasty that Jaramogi had built through the Luo Union, expanding his list of allies and discovering new support bases. All political campaigns for seats in Nyanza and Western were built on a fundamental principle of six-piece voting pattern in favour of only ODM candidates.

Observers are predicting tough times for the Orange party in the absence of Raila and some believe the implosion of the party is a matter of when and not if, as an entire generation of political orphans begin to come to terms with the loss of the compass of their political moves.

Defend allies

In his last days, Raila had been battling fires of sibling rivalries within his fold and had been forced to defend allies Edwin Sifuna and Siaya Governor James Orengo on a number of occasions.

Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, another ambitious politician, has also been on the receiving end from a section of ODM stalwarts keen to dim his political candle. This, coupled with local rivalries for similar seats, puts the party on an edge, and how the leaders handle the situation will be determining the future of ODM.

Lawyer Nelson Havi described ODM as Raila and claimed his death is a big loss for the party, and a key turning point for the region.

“I can compare Raila’s death to the death of Julius Caesar. Julius Caesar was a Roman general who created the Roman Empire but after his death, there was no one capable of filling his shoes,” said Havi.

James Mwamu, an advocate of the High Court said Raila was the glue that held ODM, adding that tough times await the Orange party.

Within ODM, senior figures have appealed for calm and peace as they juggled between restoring confidence and calm, and coming to terms with the loss of their kingpin.

In a statement, the party’s secretary general, Edwin Sifuna, urged members to maintain unity.

“While we process this adverse news and await further updates, I urge all party members to observe the tenets of unity and rally together as we reflect on the life and times of our leader, a man who had been a mentor and father to all,” said Sifuna.

In Nyanza, the region has never known any alternative political voice of direction apart from Raila since the death of his father in 1994. The few that have tried to introduce new political order in the region have all failed, with some sent into political oblivion by Raila’s unforgiving supporters.

He was the voice that could calm political storms, plunge the region into working arrangements with the government and advise on leadership for three decades. Here, the chorus ‘if Raila says left, it is left’ has been adhered to by a majority of his loyal followers.

But all that is now in the past. The lion cannot roar again, and a new reality awaits his backyard and how the ODM party will weave through will be the determinant of the future of his political empire.

As a temporary measure, the party’s National Executive Council has selected his elder brother, Oburu Oginga, to steer the party as the acting leader. Though respected in party circles, observers are not confident of what the future holds for the party.

Oburu is inheriting a party fraught with several challenges threatening its bold standing in the country’s political life.

It is a party that has been trapped in a circle of sibling rivalries that had threatened to tear it apart for several years but remained glued together following Raila’s intervention.

Even at his death, the cracks were glaring as some of his troops exchange fierce criticisms against each other over the involvement of the party with President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza.

Observers believe a Tower of Babel moment awaits ODM if its most senior members do not handle the Raila transition properly amid rising interests from a new generation of politicians keen to create a new order.

Political competition

Joshua Nyamori, a political pundit argues that the region will witness more political competition in the absence of Raila.

“I see ODM stabilising around President Ruto. This is because it’s how Raila shaped it in the days leading to his death.”

“I see more political competition in the Luo Nyanza region but I think more of it will be guided by the direction which Raila had issued when the region was lining with the government of President Ruto,” Nyamori said.

But Raila’s allies are steadfast. United by grief, they are rallying for impeccable unity and peace within their ranks.

On social media, however, some have already started blaring political war drums, albeit in figurative speeches. For instance, political operative and Kileleshwa MCA Robert Alai dismissed those he claimed were yapping over party leadership.

Coupled with a wave of generational challenges to elderly party members that has flared within the party in recent months, a long bumpy road awaits ODM.

It remains to be seen how Oburu’s magic wand will restore calm in the party and assure its members of stability after several years of dependence on Raila’s leadership.

Prior to Raila’s demise, any talk of a Raila succession has been like an abomination, but now a valid discussion that is expected to simmer within the party ranks.

Observers believe Raila’s demise will have a devastating effect on the party he built and strengthened to compete with past regimes.

On one end, the party had been forced to postpone its 20th anniversary celebrations, which insiders claim was largely as a result of Raila’s failing health condition but also the need for the party to rejuvenate its grassroots support further.

Kenya Kwanza

The party had been torn into two, with some standing on the fence in their dealings with the Kenya Kwanza government, as other party stalwarts threw their weight behind the broad-based government. This, coupled up with the intense push by the new Opposition led by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, who have been on a pursuit to replace ODM as the voice of the Opposition, had caused tensions within Raila’s party.

Prior to Raila’s demise, the party lined up a series of political meetings across different counties to drum up support for its policies and revive its networks.

That effort now lies in doubt following Raila’s death as party honchos struggle to come to terms with his demise.

Yesterday, however, ODM troops were mourning a political father who held their hands and pushed them to political success. For some, the loss was too painful to fathom.

To them, they had lost the pillar of the party, a statesman who guided the country with grit and passion.

Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi, a lifetime member of the ODM party, described him as a peaceful man who put the interest of the country above everything else.

“In him rests a towering African democratic giant, fighter for social justice, a mentor and a father,” said Mbadi.

Kisumu Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o, a long-term ally of Raila described him as a movement.

“Raila was never just a politician. He was a movement.’’

Additional reporting by Clinton Ambujo