Over 200,000 students who would have sat the 2024 Kenya Certificate of Secondary Education (KCSE) examination are missing four years after completing their primary school education, raising questions about the government’s push for 100 per cent transition.

While the government insists that all Kenya Certificate of Primary Education (KCPE) candidates transition to secondary school, the number of students sitting for the KCSE tells a different story—one of consistent decline.

Data analysed by The Standard from the past three cohorts of student reveals that over 568,000 learners who joined secondary schools under the 100 per cent transition policy have disappeared from the education system. This trend casts doubt on the policy’s implementation, and highlights challenges in retention the real-life struggles of Kenyan families.

The 2024 KCSE cohort marks the sharpest decline to date. While 1,179,192 candidates sat for the KCPE examinations in 2020, only 965,501 are sitting their KCSE this year. This gap of 213,691 students is the largest since the policy’s rollout in 2018.

The revelation calls into question the 100 per cent transition policy initiated by the former President Uhuru Kenyatta, as the figures expose a persistent trend of student attrition.

Since the policy’s implementation, three cohorts have completed secondary school, with worrying patterns emerging. In 2022, the pioneer class of the transition policy revealed a discrepancy: 1,052,364 students sat for the KCPE exams in 2018, but only 881,416 took the KCSE four years later—a shortfall of 170,948 students.

The decline persisted in 2023, where 184,003 students who sat for the 2019 KCPE exams were unaccounted for in the 2023 KCSE cohort.

The 100 per cent transition policy was designed to guarantee every child’s right to 12 years of basic education, as mandated by the Constitution.

While the government celebrates initial placement figures, it appears less attention is given to retention and progression through the education system.

The reasons for this mass exodus remain unclear.

Stakeholders, however, explain possible scenarios that could have led to the decline, including students dropping out due to pressures of poverty or teenage pregnancy.

“We cannot ignore the realities facing many students, especially in marginalized areas. Issues like poverty, teenage pregnancies, and the hidden costs of education force many to drop out despite the 100 per cent transition policy,” Willy Kuria, the Kenya Secondary School Heads Association chairman, told The Standard on Thursday.

Kuria further indicated that class repetition may have also contributed to the decline.

“The practice of class repetition has been a common feature under 8-4-4, aimed at improving performance. This may also contribute to the declining numbers of students sitting the KCSE exams. It’s a multifaceted issue that requires targeted interventions,” Kuria said.

Education specialist Janet Muthoni faulted the programme for being shortsighted, as it only focuses on enrolling students in secondary school but lacks a clear plan for ensuring continuity through the four years.

“For us to succeed in 100 per cent transition, we must empower sub-county schools, equipping them with the required infrastructure, teachers, and other facilities for teaching and learning,” she said.

However, a significant number of students remain unaccounted for, exposing the possibility of widespread dropout rates in secondary schools.

Akello Misori, the Kenya Union of Post Primary Education Teachers (KUPPET) Secretary-General, argued that the 100 per cent transition policy has not been properly executed and lacks a sustainable way to ensure learners remain in school over the four-year period.

Misori criticised the system, noting that students placed in secondary schools are sometimes overburdened by school fees, especially those who come from low-income households.

“When you force learners to join school but do not establish a proper way to retain them, they will inevitably drop out. The government has failed to ensure proper support for the most vulnerable students,” Misori told The Standard.

National Parents Association Chairman Silas Obuhatsa called the dropout numbers alarming and a cause for concern. He urged for immediate interventions, including a comprehensive tracking system for learners and parents, starting from birth through to school entry and until completion.

“This is the only way we will be able to identify where the leakage happens and when, instead of waiting until Form Four to discover that a significant number of learners are missing,” Obuhatsa said.

Despite these concerns, former Education Cabinet Secretary Ezekiel Machogu downplayed the issue. Speaking on December 18 last year during Form One selection claimed the dropout rate was minimal.

“I cannot say that there is a very big difference. Those who might have dropped out of school at the end of the four-year period might be a very small percentage,” he said.