Just as President William Ruto sought to co-opt ODM for the 2027 elections, Raila Odinga’s death changed the game entirely. He had courted the ODM leader, even bringing him and key allies into government, all with the 2027 General Election in mind. Raila’s passing on 15 October in India, however, has thrown a spanner in the works.

What should have been a celebration of ODM’s 20th anniversary instead became a reality check for President Ruto. Speaker after speaker struck a defiant tone, sending a clear message: ODM will not be dissolved, and any coalition will be on its terms.