The race for the quarter-finals in Group A of the African Nations Championship (CHAN) 2024 boils down to fine margins, with Kenya’s Harambee Stars and Morocco’s Atlas Lions both in strong contention to advance.

Kenya currently sit top of the group with seven points from three matches, having scored three goals and conceded just two.

They opened their campaign with a 1-0 victory over DR Congo on August 3 at the Moi International Sports Centre, Kasarani, followed by a 1-1 draw against Angola on August 7 at the same venue.

On August 10, they claimed a crucial 1-0 win over Morocco, positioning themselves as group leaders with one match left against Zambia on Sunday, August 17.

For Harambee Stars, the qualification scenario is clear: a win against already-eliminated Zambia will guarantee top spot and a place in the quarter-finals.

Even a draw could be enough to progress, provided DR Congo do not beat Morocco by a margin that swings the goal difference in their favour.

A loss, however, could leave Kenya vulnerable, depending on the outcome of the DR Congo–Morocco clash.

Morocco, the defending champions, have recovered well from their setback against Kenya.

They began their campaign with a 2-0 win over Angola at Nyayo Stadium on August 3, stumbled with the narrow defeat to Kenya on August 10, but bounced back on August 14 with a 3-1 win over Zambia.

With six points and five goals from three matches, Morocco’s attacking edge gives them a strong chance of progressing.

Their fate hinges on their final match against DR Congo, who also have six points but a slightly lower goal tally (four goals scored).

For Morocco, a win guarantees qualification and could secure the top spot if Kenya falters.

A draw may still see them through, depending on Kenya’s result, while a loss could spell elimination if DR Congo’s victory lifts them above both Morocco and Kenya on points or goal difference.

DR Congo remain the biggest disruptor in the group. After losing 1-0 to Kenya, they rebounded with a 2-0 win over Zambia and a similar result against Angola.

Sitting on six points with a strong defensive record, they know that beating Morocco in their final fixture will almost certainly send them to the last eight potentially at the expense of either Kenya or Morocco.

Angola, with four points from four matches, are mathematically out, leaving Zambia at the bottom with no points from three games and only one goal scored.

Zambia’s match against Kenya is now a formality in terms of qualification but could still influence the final standings if they manage to upset the group leaders.

With only two quarter-final spots available, Group A’s final fixtures promise high drama. Kenya hold the advantage, Morocco have the firepower, and DR Congo are lurking with intent setting up a decisive last round where one slip could cost a giant their place in the knockout stages.