Tanzania’s sweeping ban on foreign-operated businesses risks straining ties with Kenya and damaging its international reputation, a diplomacy expert has warned.

Dr. Edgar Githua, an international relations scholar, said on Monday, August 4, that the move could escalate to a diplomatic fallout, including the potential recall of Kenya’s High Commissioner from Dar es Salaam.

“I will not be surprised if Tanzania’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs was blindsided by their Minister of Trade in this blanket declaration,” said Githua during an interview on Spice FM.

He called the directive a political tactic designed to regain public favour ahead of Tanzania’s October elections.

“The move is pure populism,” he noted, adding, “But it comes at the expense of regional cooperation.”

Githua argued that Tanzania has long been the “weak link” in the East African Community (EAC)  and said the new restrictions further isolate the country.

Tanzania’s ban targets 15 sectors, including mobile money, courier services, salons, tour guiding, real estate, electronics repair, small-scale mining, crop buying, off-casino gambling, and media ownership.

Licensing agencies have been ordered not to issue or renew permits for such businesses. Violators face fines of not less than 10 million Tanzanian shillings (Sh495,000), up to six months in jail, and possible revocation of residence or work permits. Tanzanian citizens who assist non-citizens may also be fined or imprisoned.

Foreigners with valid licences may continue to operate until their permits expire.

Githua said more than 250,000 Kenyans work in Tanzania and that the ban directly affects their livelihoods.

“If we could quantify the human resource Kenya provides, Tanzania gets more from us,” he said.

He also flagged a rise in economic hostility, citing new 10 to 15 per cent business taxes and recent attempts to block Kenyan drivers at entry points.

“You have declared you are not open to competition. The world watching this is also getting repealed,” he noted, warning of damage to Tanzania’s global image.

Githua added the restrictions could violate international human rights and warned the country could face sanctions from development partners.

“Tanzania will become a pariah in global politics, and eventually that would cost them,” he said.

“It begins costing them from development partners and foreign direct investment.”

Quoting Cabinet Secretary for Investments, Trade and Industry Lee Kinyanjui, Githua said Kenya could be forced to retaliate if the situation escalates.

The EAC Secretariat has also criticised the directive, saying it undermines the regional bloc’s common market goals.

“Since the adoption of the EAC Common Market Protocol, Partner States have committed to fostering regional integration by removing barriers to trade, services and investment and to refrain from introducing unilateral measures that hinder the free movement and establishment rights of citizens and businesses across the region,” it said in a statement.

At the same time. Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi said Kenya is pursuing diplomacy to resolve the standoff.

“I have personally called the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Tanzania, and President William Ruto, as chair of the EAC summit, has also had a conversation with both President Samia Suluhu and Tanzania’s Minister of Trade. We are using diplomatic channels to address that issue,” Mudavadi said.