Former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka has several friends surrounding him, but few appear fully committed to backing his presidential ambitions.

Old friends, who had essentially endorsed the Wiper Party leader, have had a change of mind, with new ones needing more time to decide.

After months of singing Kalonzo’s praises, Jubilee Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni dropped a bombshell – former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s party would be supporting Fred Matiang’i as its flagbearer in 2027.

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua recently hit the former vice president with news that having former Prime Minister Raila Odinga as the opposition’s presidential candidate was “more exciting” than any other opposition figures.

Amid all this, Raila, who Kalonzo has supported four times for the presidency, looks set to formalising his partnership with President William Ruto, essentially extinguishing any hope that the former premier would back Kalonzo in the next polls. Possibly anticipating that Raila would desert him, Kalonzo chose months ago to explore the Mount Kenya region, backing Gachagua against impeachment proceedings in Parliament last October.

Observers viewed this as a strategy to win over a region that overwhelmingly voted for President William Ruto in the 2022 general election. Indeed, Gachagua is considering supporting Kalonzo’s presidential bid, as he said in an interview on KTN on Monday, repeating it yesterday at a joint interview of vernacular Kamba stations.

“Our first priority is that we are going to have a presidential candidate from the Mountain and we will appeal to other Kenyans to support us. If we find that it is not feasible, we will support others. Kalonzo is an option. We looked at our numbers, his numbers and other numbers and it is doable,” Gachagua said Monday.

But the former DP’s description of a Raila candidacy as more exciting raised questions about Gachagua’s commitment to supporting Kalonzo’s bid. The two, alongside former Defence Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa, are working on a coalition they believe will be formidable enough to defeat Ruto in the 2027 polls.

During a meeting last week, they decided to poach Raila, fresh from his loss in the African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson bid, to help them fight Ruto. The Saturday Standard has established that Gachagua’s allies feel Raila has the more realistic chance of defeating Ruto if the opposition unites against the Head of State.

Raila appears to be leaning towards Ruto, amid talk that the pair are close to formalising their partnership. The former premier said Monday that he was still consulting about his next political move.

Going into the 2022 polls, the Wiper party leader looked like Raila’s heir apparent. Reeling from the slim defeat in that election, the Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya Coalition party previously strategised to oust Ruto. Among the party’s ranks, Kalonzo was the most preferred to succeed Raila.

Raila’s truce with Ruto last July marked a turning point and Kalonzo had sensed it. He initially said he would take over the opposition’s leadership, jesting that Raila could not confront Ruto as he hoped for the president’s support in his AUC bid.

The former premier’s loss in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, complicates Kalonzo’s math as it meant Raila would return to the limelight. Kalonzo has spent the past year futilely trying to fit into Raila’s shoes as the opposition’s foremost politician.

“Mr Raila Odinga has no peers in the Kenyan political space. It is therefore not prudent to expect any politicians to fit into his shoes,” said political risk analyst Dismas Mokua.

“Very few politicians, if at all any, have the Raila DNA brand of politics. Mr Odinga, as a transactional politician, uses the pain and pleasure principle to reward political support and punish offenders. Politicians like James Orengo and Anyang’ Nyong’o who at some stage did not align with the Raila brand of politics were politically punished and rehabilitated when they kissed the king’s ring,” he added.

Some analysts had argued that a loss for Raila would have hurt Ruto, who hoped to manage his politics with the AUC bid and ‘exile’ Raila to Addis, predicting a fallout that would have benefited Kalonzo. But that does not seem to be the case.

Raila did not waste time and Monday met with the president in the company of his brother Oburu Oginga and allies, including lawyer Paul Mwangi, who has participated in crafting the former premier’s political deals in the past.

With would-be allies exploring their options and granting Kalonzo no assurances for support, the Wiper leader appears at sea, according to Saboti MP Caleb Amisi. 

“He is completely stranded because he wants to be president but cannot attract support. He has had two years to do that. Raila has walked across 52 countries looking for the AUC seat for one year. He has come back and found Kalonzo where he left him. He left Kalonzo addressing press conferences and came back to find him doing just that. He should be addressing rallies in Tononoka,” said Amisi. 

Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi disagreed, saying, “Kalonzo is not stranded. Kalonzo and any other leader who is against corruption and wants a prosperous country with transformation and order will find it hard to work with Ruto. Only those seeking monetary gain will find it easy to work with the current regime.”

Mwangangi said Kenyans were united against the Head of State, predicting that any alliances involving Ruto would not last.

Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo concurred, arguing, “Ruto knows Raila can let him down. Chances are high that Raila is only assisting Ruto to get to 2027 and it is possible that he will abandon him.”

Over the last year, Kalonzo has become a leading voice in the opposition and has called out Ruto’s regime every chance he gets. The self-styled “leader of the people’s loyal opposition” has kept the pressure on Ruto, criticising his unpopular policies.

Kalonzo has felt better off siding with the disenfranchised youth who staged a nationwide revolt last year that brought the Kenya Kwanza administration to its knees.

Despite his best efforts, he struggles to penetrate different bases. From their comments on X, Generation Zs and Millennials appear to favour an overhaul of the political establishment and want a break from the current crop of politicians, who have dominated the arena for decades.

The Wiper leader has also yet to win over Mt Kenya despite rallying his allies in Parliament to oppose Gachagua’s impeachment. He appears to be banking on the former DP’s support in the region. Kalonzo also seems to cling to Uhuru, whom he hopes will benefit his bid more than Raila’s in 2022.

Maanzo argued that Kalonzo had what it takes to mount a challenge against Ruto, acknowledging the important role Mt Kenya would play in having him potentially elected.

“Kalonzo has a Mwai Kibaki moment in that quite a number of people believe in his leadership and experience. Ruto has messed up everything and many Kenyans know that Kalonzo is the only one who can get the country out of this mess and back on track. With central Kenya and other friends, Kalonzo has more than 50+ 1,” said Maanzo.

But Mwangangi argued that the 2027 race was not about Kalonzo but “the country.”

“Anyone who goes against Ruto will be on the side of Kenyans. Kalonzo is a long-serving leader whose performance in the Foreign Affairs ministry is internationally recognised,” said Mwangangi.

Raila’s support could help Kalonzo’s bid, but despite supporting the former premier, Kalonzo is yet to find universal acceptance among Raila’s supporters, especially within Raila’s native Nyanza.

In Raila’s backyard where he enjoys a near-cultic following, he has voters on a switch, dictating their political decisions by a mere flip. Since Raila partnered with Ruto, the Head of State has received a hero’s welcome on his several trips to Nyanza. Uhuru, too, experienced such a reception after his March 2018 handshake with Raila.

“Mr Kalonzo Musyoka has a conservative and gentleman’s approach to politics. He fears blowing up bridges to create new alliances and places a premium on political relationships,” Mokua said.

He added, “While most politicians pursue their selfish interests to the hilt, Mr Kalonzo takes time to do scenario and sensitivity analysis. This approach has denied him the capacity to deploy the dreaded political killer instinct. Politics is all about the killer instinct. Mr Kalonzo is slow to inflict pain on political enemies. He needs to develop the capacity to inflict political pain and reward loyalists.”